Week 10 NFL Picks

8 11 2008

By Tom Peters

nose-pickMaking the trip up to Buffalo was fun. A decent stadium with great fans. If I lived closer, I’d get season tickets.

Last week was another great week for me going 10 – 4. I would have been 12 – 2 had the Bills offensive line not get owned by the Jets and the Jaguars had not given Cincinnati their first win. I’ll also blame my record on my politically charged pick of the Redskins (I won’t talk politics here, we can discuss those things on my Licks on Politics blog) and trusting Denver.

Anyway, my overall record has improved to 82 – 48 and I’m looking to crack the 120 win mark before the end of the season.  After Denver’s win at Cleveland (how they pulled it off is beyond me) I’m already in the hole at 0 – 1.

Here are my picks for the rest of Week 10:

New Orleans Saints (4-4) v. Atlanta Falcons (5-3)

New Orleans has the best quarterback in the league in Drew Brees but without Reggie Bush to mix things up and the core of wide receivers still unhealthy, I have a bad feeling about this game. Matt Ryan is progressing into a pretty good quarterback and Michael Turner is helping to take the pressure off of him. Expect both to have big games and the Falcons just might be a playoff team.

MY PICK: Falcons

Tennessee Titans (8-0) v. Chicago Bears (5-3)

This could have been a trap game for the Titans……until Kyle Orton got hurt. Enter Rex Grossman. The Titans have the best defense in the league. This is the kind of defense that can get you to Super Bowls (i.e ’85 Bears, ’00 Ravens, ‘ 05 Bears, ’07 Giants). Grossman likes to throw the ball deep and tries to do more than merely manage the game. He will pay for these risks. Expect Grossmant o cause at least three turnovers, leading to a minimum of 13 Titan points. Matt Forte will not be able to run the ball against the Titans and they will certainly go 9 – 0.

MY PICK: Titans

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-5) v. Detroit Lions (0-8)

This is the toughest game for me to pick this week. The Lions are terrible in blowing that lead against The Bears last week (I’m coming close to calling them Rexy’s Midnight Gunners). The Jaguars are worse and they sicken me. Daunte Culpepper is expected to start for the Lions this week. This will be good for Calvin Johnson as he now has someone who can go deep. I’m giving up on the Jaguars with good reason. All they do is run the ball, run the ball, run the ball, run the ball. Their offense is more stagnant than office cubicle air and they are limited in their ability to pass the ball.

MY PICK: Lions (This is probably a bandwagon pick, but I don’t care).

Seattle Seahawks (2-6) v. Miami Dolphins (4-4)

The Wildcat is a gimmick offense. The Dolphins are not as good as their record indicates. However, the Seahawks are as bad as their record indicates. Plus, you have a West Coast team going East for a 1pm (12, Central, 10am Pacific) game. No road team has won a game in this instance (0-9). The trend continues.

MY PICK: Dolphins

Green Bay Packers (4-4) v. Minnesota Vikings (4-4)

Another tough one to pick because both teams are inconsistent. I want to say the Packers because Aaron Rodgers can throw against that porous Viking pass defense. He played well against them in Week 1, but this is his first time in the Metrodome. Remember that phrase, it always hurts the first time, I have a gut feeling it applies here.

MY PICK: Vikings (expect the Vikings defense to score at least once and Rodgers to still have a big game)

Buffalo Bills (5-3) v. New England Patriots (5-3)

Do you remember a time when the Bills were 4-0 and Robert Royal was actually catching the ball?? What happened?? They started playing teams in the division. They are 0-2 against the worst teams in the AFC East (Jets, Dolphins). What makes you think they’ll beat the Patriots who haven’t lost consecutive games under Belichick since November 2006 and have only done it three times during his tenure. This one is easy to pick.

MY PICK: Patriots (I still love the atmosphere at Ralph Wilson Stadium).

St. Louis Rams (2-6) v. New York Jets (5-3)

I must admit, the Jets were very impressive in their win at Buffalo and have two road wins in the division. They own a lot of tiebreakers. I’ll save this for my playoff predictions article coming after Week 12. The Rams have lost a little bit of their swagger since Jim Haslett took over. The Jets are en enigma. They do well against good teams and struggle mightily against the teams they should beat (see Bengals, Raiders, Chiefs). This almost seems like a no-brainer, but it is the Jets.

MY PICK: Jets (barely)

Baltimore Ravens (5-3) v. Houston Texans (3-5)

Joe Flacco is turning into quite a good pick. The passing game is starting to develop, which is important because it has kept the aging defense on the bench for longer periods of time allowing them to return to their dominance. The Texans are going with Sage Rosenfels for the next few games. He is a decent quarterback, but not better than Matt Schaub. The Texans will have great difficulty in getting the running game going and I’m not confident the Texans can win on the pass alone. The X factor in this game will be Steve Slaton’s role in the passing game, but I anticipate the Ravens begin prepared for it by using a linebacker in a spy role.

MY PICK: Ravens

Carolina Panthers (6-2) v. Oakland Raiders (2-6)

How do the Raiders have 2 wins? They played the Jets & the Chiefs. Forgot. Panthers coming off a bye week, Raiders coming off their pitiful performance against the Falcons. Carolina has a better defense than Atlanta. Logic prevails here.

MY PICK: Panthers(we should have relegations like they do in Europe)

Indianapolis Colts (4-4) v. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2)

Everytime I pick against the Steelers, they usually win. I have to stop underestimating their resiliency. The Colts are highly overrated. They’ve had major struggles in their offense and their run defense is terrible. Having Addai & Sanders back helps, but they go up against a much better Steelers team. Willie Parker is healthy and looked really good in the Obama clinching victory against the Redskins. The difference in this game will be how healthy Rothelisberger is (makes you kind of miss Faneca), but injuries haven’t been a real problem on the Steeler team yet.

MY PICK: Steelers

Kansas City Chiefs (1-7) v. San Diego Chargers (3-5)

If NorvTurner weren’t coaching this game, it’d be am easier pick. the Chief offense looked good against Tampa Bay. Unfortunately, they have to play defense. I can’t get a good read on the Chargers offense, but they are playing the Chiefs, they are at home and are coming off a bye week. The jetlag should have worn off by now.

MY PICK: Chargers (I’m not sure if they’ll cover however)

New York Giants (7-1) v. Philadelphia Eagles (5-3)

Does someone want to tell me why the Giants are underdogs in this game? They are the best team in the NFL (shut up Titan fans, you’ll get a dose of reality soon enough). I like the Eagles, but let’s face it. They are not as good as the Giants. The defenses will shine in this game as both defensive coordinators are cut from the same cloth. Manning will not be spectacular in this game and the Eagle defense will blitz him and pressure him to no end. If the Giants are to win this game, they will have to run the ball effectively enough to keep the defense honest. The best way to beat the blitz is to run into it. The Eagles game plan is virtually the same, but I think the Giants defense is better, hence my pick.

MY PICK: Giants (this will be one hell of a game)

San Francisco 49ers (2-6) v. Arizona Cardinals (5-3)

Who cares about this game???

MY PICK: Cardinals (I wonder which body part Singletary exposes this week)

There you have it. I dare you to disagree with me.

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