Week 6 NFL Picks

11 10 2008

by Tom Peters

Last week was a terrible week for me to pick. My overrating of teams (Chargers, Redskins, Bills & Packers), my underrating of teams (Saints) & Pittsburgh’s resiliency thourgh injury led to me a miserable 8 – 6 record last week, bringing my overall record to 46 – 28 on the year.

Week 6 is a tough week to pick games. 13 total games with few gimmes, especially with injuries, teams not living up to potential and inconsistencies in play. Without further ado, here are my picks for this week’s action.

Cincinnati Bengals (0-5) v. New Yok Jets (2-2)

I will actually be at this game. This is a simple game to pick. No Carson Palmer, no chance.

MY PICK: JETS (in a blowout, I don’t care if Fitzpatrick was the valedictorian)

Miami Dolphins (2-2) v. Houston Texans (0-4)

The Dolphins are on a tear defeating both New England and San Diego. The wildcat offense has defensive coordinators scratching their heads. Houston had has some tough luck losses to Indianapolis and Jacksonville. That one stroke of bad luck always seems to happen to them. It’ll happen here. Miami is improving and I don’t think Houston can effectively answer the Wildcat.

MY PICK: Dolphins at the last minute

Chicago Bears (3-2) v. Atlanta Falcons (3-2)

Atlanta’s win at Green Bay is proof that the Falcons are a team on the rise. Matt Ryan has looked really good, especially at home against terrible teams. The Bears manhandled Detroit and their defense is almost back to it’s 2006 strength when they made the Super Bowl. I like Ryan, but the Bears defense will overwhelm him. Expect Kyle Orton to put up respectable numbers.

MY PICK: Bears

Detroit Lions (0-4) v. Minnesota Vikings (2-3)

We all know Detroit is terrible, but the Vikings aren’t much better. A lucky win last week against the Saints could give them the confidence they need to try to get back in contention for the NFC North title. Adrian Peterson will run for over 200 yards in this contest.

MY PICK: Vikings (but they won’t cover the 14 point spread)

Carolina Panthers (4-1) v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2)

This is a very good game with very good defenses. Tampa Bay has some key injuries and who knows what the status of Joey Galloway will be come kickoff. The Bucs did not look very good against a suspect Broncos defense. The Panther defense is getting back to its usual ways and this is a very well balanced offense with Willams and Stewart and Muhammad and Smith. This will be too much for the Bucs to handle.

MY PICK: Panthers, it won’t be close.

Baltimore Ravens (2-2) v. Indianapolis Colts (2-2)

This is a weird game. For some reason neither team can score. The Colts should be thanking their lucky stars they aren’t 0-4 for everyone knows they sure play like an 0-4 team. They can’t win at home, they haven’t stopped the run (Bob Sanders is sorely missed) and the offense has yet to click. The Ravens defense is good to the point that if they had an offense they’d be 4-0. I think the Raven defense will overpower the Colts offense and I need the Colts to prove to me that their 2 wins weren’t flukes.

MY PICK: Ravens

Oakland Raiders (1-3) v. New Orleans Saints (2-3)

A bad loss for the Saints last week. If they can keep the ball they are still one of the finer offenses out there. New coach, same old dysfunctional team.

MY PICK: Saints (Tom Cable will be fired by Thursday, maybe Al Davis will have learned PowerPoint by then)

Washington Redskins (4-1) v. St. Louis Rams (0-4)

The Redskins shouldn’t need a second-half comeback here. They just need to be sure that they don’t play down to the competition. Rams defense might improve under Haslett, but it won’t be better than the Redskins.

MY PICK: Redskins DUH!!!!!!

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-3) v. Denver Broncos (4-1)

Jacksonville really needed to win last week against a banged up Steeler team on a short week. They didn’t get it. The Bronco defense looked better against the Buccaneers and I think it is a defense on the rise. The Jaguars can;t run the ball with two of the better RB tandems in the league and the pass offense is mediocre at best. Denver should take care of business here and build a thick buffer between them and the Chargers.

MY PICK: Broncos

Green Bay Packers (2-3) v. Seattle Seahawks (1-3)

Calling this game the Holmgren Bowl is old and tiring, just like the Seahawk passing game. Rodgers had his up and down moments in last week loss to Atlanta. Luckily, the Seahawk secondary is terrible. Rodgers should torch them for over 300 yards and 3 TD’s. The Seahawks cannot pass the ball effectively, especially with the likely absence of Deion Branch and will continue to struggle against a Packer secondary without Al Harris.

MY PICK: Packers by a wide margin.

Dallas Cowboys (4-1) v. Arizona Cardinals (3-2)

The circus has finally reached Glendale about 8 months later than they were supposed to be there. The main question is which Cardinals team will show? Will we see the Cardinal defense that gave up 17 to Buffalo or the Swiss Cheese quartet that gave up 56 to the Jets? We know the offense won’t be a problem, especially with Newman and Williams missing for the Cowboys. Plus, the Cowboys have not looked impressive the last two weeks (How does Cincinnati even keep this game close?) I think the injuries to the secondary, the Pacman Jones distraction and the drama with T.O will bite the Cowboys in their assless chaps.

MY PICK: Cardinals

Philadelphia Eagles (2-3) v. San Francisco 49ers (2-3)

Brian Westbrook will miss this game and it will hurt the Eagles offense, but it will still be better than the Niners offense which looked inept last week against the Patriots. The Eagles need this win to save their season. Expect the Eagles defense to score and secure a very close victory.

MY PICK: Eagles the best 2-3 team in the land

New England Patriots (3-1) v. San Diego Chargers (2-3)

When it comes to San Diego, something ain’t right. This is a team that should be undefeated. The Patriots will find a way to exploit the many weaknesses the Chargers currently have and be able to focus on taking out the rest of the positives. New England is starting to find that balance on offensive.

MY PICK: Patriots by a large margin

New York Giants (4-0) v. Cleveland Browns (1-3)

A no brainer. Cleveland is worse than Seattle, even with the return of Donte Stallworth. The possible absence of Kellen Winslow will negate Stallworth’s return. Plaxico Burress returns for the Giants. Just call the police,22 Browns will be murdered this game and Romeo Crennel will be Notre Dame’s defensive coordinator by Thursday.

MY PICK: Giants, at least you can go to bed at halftime.

Enjoy the games this weekend. Fell free to argue with me.

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