The Duke’s Picks – NFL Week 6 Predictions

11 10 2008

by Michael DeLuca

An amazing 20-14 record against the spread thus far for the Duke’s Picks with yet another winning week in the books.  Last week, the late game heroics of Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts (ok, so it was the collapse of Sage Rosenfels and the Houston Texans) carried us to paydirt once again.  This week, tough spreads up and down the board, but not to worry…I’ve found five good ones for ya.

Dallas Cowboys -5.5 ARIZONA CARDINALS – What can I say, I’m a sucker for a home dog.  You never really know what you’re going to get out of Arizona.  One week they turn the ball over 6 times, the next they force 6 turnovers.  One week they’re giving up six passing touchdowns, the next their scoring 6 passing touchdowns.  The one thing that has been consistent is their play at home recently.  This year, the Cardinals are 2-0 at The University of Phoenix Stadium and have outscored opponents 72-17 thus far this season in their friendly confines.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -2.5 Green Bay Packers – Sad state of affairs here, did you realize these two teams met last year to determine who went to the NFC Championship Game.  My, how the mighty have fallen.  Green Bay has lost three in a row.  Their main problems are in the secondary, where Al Harris is out indefinately and Charles Woodson is playing through a broken toe!  Shouldn’t be a problem in this one however, since 94 year old receiver Bobby Engram is Seattle’s only passing option and it looks like Matt Hasselbeck will be giving way to Charlie (One and Done) Frye.  Packers offense is still potent and should roll.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS -13 Detroit Lions – Those who are fans of The Duke’s Picks know I’m not the type to lay a big number all too often, so this one might surprise you.  Let’s disect though:  Jon Kitna is doubtful (back), Calvin Johnson (knee) and Roy Williams (hip) are questionable.  More than likely, the receivers will play, but Kitna is going to miss this game.  To make matters worse, his replacement, Dan Orlovsky is having ankle problems.  Detroit is already 0-4 and their average margin of defeat is 20 points.  Minnesota should be heading in the right direction after a Monday Night victory over the Saints last week, the return of Bryant McKinnie, and another week of rest for Sidney Rice.  Sure, Brad Childress is a knucklehead, but even he should be able to lead his team to a 20+ point victory in this one. 

NY JETS -6 Cincinatti Bengals – Their home, their hot, their not from Ohio.  All good reasons to take the Jets, who it looks like will face backup Ryan Fitzpatrick instead of starter Carson Palmer (elbow). 

NY GIANTS -7.5 Cleveland Browns – This goes against every rule I’ve got when it comes to betting professional football.  #1, I’m setting myself up to lose by a half point. #2, the Giants are typically lax in out of Conference games.  #3, the Browns are a better offensive team than they’ve shown thus far and Monday Night would be a perfect time to showcase that.  #4, The Browns are coming off a bye and will be well prepared.  Nonetheless, I’m taking the Giants.  In 4 games thus far they’ve won by an average margin of 20 points.  Coach Coughlin should have the team mentally prepared after week 3’s near defeat to the Cincinnati Bengals.  Not to mention, everybody gets up for a Monday Nighter.

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4 responses

12 10 2008
Tom Peters

I’m not sure the Vikings will cover. They haven’t looked really good as of late and they have a tendency to keep bad teams in games, sometimes to the point where they actually win.

If the Vikings cover the spread, I will be amazed.

12 10 2008
Michael DeLuca

Detroit lost by 13 to Atlanta in week 1, 23 to Green Bay in week 2, 18 to San Francisco in week 3, and by 27 to Chicago in week 5. On the surface, I didn’t like it much either, but looking at those numbers and seeing that Orlovsky is getting the start, I’ll take my chances.

12 10 2008
Tom Peters

Told you they wouldn’t cover, the Vikings were lucky to win the game.

13 10 2008
Michael DeLuca

Yeah, kind of pissed me off that they won after that piss poor performance. Of well, I’ll take 3 out of 4 any day!

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